China Could See 760,000 Lung Cancer Deaths a Year by 2030
China is facing a troubling lung cancer challenge. A newly published analysis estimates that the country could record approximately 760,200 lung cancer deaths in 2030, even though age-standardized mortality rates are showing signs of improvement.
The research, published in Cancer Biology & Medicine, analyzed lung cancer mortality data from 2013 through 2021 and used a Bayesian age-period-cohort model to project trends through 2030. Researchers from China's National Cancer Center, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College conducted the study.
The finding highlights an important public-health paradox: China may be making progress against lung cancer risk while still experiencing more deaths because its population is rapidly aging.
Why Are Lung Cancer Deaths Expected to Rise?
According to the study, China's crude lung cancer mortality rate increased by approximately 2.3% per year between 2013 and 2021. However, the age-standardized mortality rate—an important measure that adjusts for changes in population age—declined by about 2.9% annually between 2015 and 2021.
This difference matters.
A declining age-standardized rate suggests that prevention, tobacco-control measures, environmental improvements and other interventions may be reducing the underlying risk. But the absolute number of deaths can still increase when a country's population becomes older.
The researchers estimated that population aging accounted for roughly 32%–43% of the increase in lung cancer deaths, while population growth contributed another 8%–31%. Changes in risk factors, meanwhile, were estimated to have reduced deaths by 3%–29%.
Lung Cancer Already Has a Huge Burden in China
The scale of the problem is already substantial.
According to the International Agency for Research on Cancer's 2022 estimates, China recorded 1,060,584 new lung cancer cases in 2022. Lung cancer was the country's leading cancer by incidence and was also the leading cause of cancer death among both men and women.
China's national health authorities reported approximately 733,300 lung cancer deaths in 2022, accounting for 28.5% of all cancer deaths in the country.
The new projection of around 760,200 deaths in 2030 therefore represents a continuing heavy burden rather than a sudden appearance of the disease.
Smoking Remains a Major Risk Factor
Tobacco exposure remains one of the most important preventable causes of lung cancer worldwide.
The IARC says smoking is responsible for approximately 85% of lung cancer cases globally, while other important exposures include secondhand smoke, outdoor and indoor air pollution, diesel exhaust, asbestos and certain occupational hazards.
For China, tobacco control remains particularly important. Reducing smoking initiation, encouraging smoking cessation and limiting secondhand smoke exposure can play an important role in lowering future lung cancer risk.
Air Pollution Is Another Concern
Smoking isn't the only factor.
Air pollution, particularly exposure to fine particulate matter, has been associated with lung cancer. IARC research has highlighted that East Asia, particularly China, carries a major burden of lung adenocarcinoma associated with ambient particulate matter pollution.
China has made progress in reducing air pollution in recent decades, but continued efforts to improve air quality could contribute to long-term reductions in cancer and other health risks.
Population Aging Is Changing the Picture
One of the most important messages from the new study is that successful prevention does not automatically mean fewer total deaths in the short term.
As more people survive into older age, the number of people entering age groups with higher cancer risk increases. The study found that deaths among people aged 65 and older rose during the 2013–2021 period.
This creates a difficult challenge for China's healthcare system: preventing new cancers while simultaneously providing diagnosis and treatment for a growing older population.
Could Earlier Detection Reduce the Burden?
Researchers emphasize the importance of improving lung cancer prevention and early detection.
China's national lung cancer screening guidance recommends low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) for appropriately selected people at high risk. The 2024 national screening and early-diagnosis program identifies high-risk adults generally aged 50–74 based on factors including smoking history, secondhand smoke exposure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, occupational exposures and having a first-degree relative with lung cancer.
LDCT is different from a standard chest X-ray because it can detect smaller abnormalities in the lungs. However, screening is not appropriate for everyone and should be based on individual risk and medical advice.
Rural and Regional Inequalities Matter
The study also found notable regional differences in China's lung cancer mortality trends.
Age-standardized mortality rates declined in urban areas and eastern regions during the study period, while the researchers identified continuing challenges associated with rural populations and regional differences.
This suggests that simply expanding national policies may not be enough. Prevention, screening and access to specialist cancer care may need to be tailored to communities with different levels of risk and healthcare access.
What Can Be Done Before 2030?
The projected figure is not a guaranteed death toll. It is a model-based forecast based on observed trends and assumptions about how those trends will develop.
That means the future can still change.
Key strategies include:
- Reducing smoking rates and helping smokers quit.
- Protecting people from secondhand smoke.
- Continuing air-pollution reduction efforts.
- Expanding appropriate lung cancer screening.
- Improving early diagnosis and treatment.
- Strengthening cancer services in rural and underserved areas.
- Preparing healthcare systems for an aging population.
- Improving public awareness of lung cancer symptoms and risk factors.
The researchers themselves call for better allocation of medical resources, stronger prevention and risk-factor control, and integration of effective policies to reduce the future burden.
A Warning—and an Opportunity
The forecast of 760,200 lung cancer deaths in China in 2030 is a serious warning, but it should not be interpreted as an inevitable outcome.
The declining age-standardized mortality rate provides an important reason for cautious optimism. It suggests that progress is possible even while demographic changes push the total number of deaths upward.
For policymakers, the challenge is therefore twofold: prevent more people from developing lung cancer and ensure that those who do develop it are diagnosed and treated as early as possible.
As China moves toward 2030, tobacco control, cleaner air, targeted screening and equitable access to cancer care could determine whether today's forecast becomes tomorrow's reality.
Conclusion
Lung cancer remains one of China's biggest public-health challenges. The latest research projects approximately 760,200 deaths from lung cancer in 2030, with population aging identified as a major driver of the rising total.
The forecast does not mean prevention efforts have failed. In fact, declining age-standardized mortality rates suggest that important progress is being made. The bigger challenge is ensuring that these gains are strong enough to overcome the effects of an aging population and persistent risk factors.
What do you think China should prioritize most to reduce lung cancer deaths—smoking prevention, air-pollution control, or wider access to early screening?